Talk #134, 1/22/20 | The Lyncean Group of San Diego

134th MEETING OF THE LYNCEAN GROUP OF SAN DIEGO

Date: Wednesday, January 22, 2020, 11:30 AM

Location: Southwestern Yacht Club
2702 Qualtrough Street
San Diego, CA 92106 (Point Loma)

Speaker: Richard Norris
Geosciences Research Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
UC San Diego

Topic: Future California: if you know what’s coming, you can change it

Abstract:
Projections of the future of California over the next 50-80 years suggest significant changes in our state’s water and energy availability, vegetation, agriculture and health as a function of climate change and growing human population. Many future trends are negative compared to today including water storage, fire risk, heat stress, air pollution, coastal erosion and urbanization. Others, including precipitation, coastal fog, and marine fisheries are comparatively unchanging. Projections of the future state of California provide insight where social action, planing and political change could change our trajectory as a state. The possible futures of California also point to areas where individuals may take action in terms of where they invest, live and retire.

Professor Norris talked about the future of California in terms of 10 “trajectories”:
1. Population
2. Temperatures
3. Precipitation
4. Sea Level and Storm Surge
5. Snowpack
6. Agriculture
7. Wildfire
8. Making Power
9. Ecosystems
10. Activism

He summarized at the end of his talk with two conclusion slides:

Prof. Norris accepts a plaque of appreciation from Program Chair, Bill Hagan

After the formal presentation was over, Prof. Norris also discussed the “wandering stones of Death Valley” (shown below) with some members of the audience. Because of this interest, we have included some links for that topic as well as the Future California talk. There are also links to the full Future California Powerpoint presentation and for the wandering stones.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Norris-and-Wandering-Stone-1024x891.jpg — Professor Norris and a wandering stone in Death Valley

Prof. Norris created his talk on Future California by researching the literature for data, references, conclusions, and graphical representations of analysis, data, and forecasts. In all, he used 76 references. All 76 of these are listed at bottom of this page and may be downloaded.

The Future California Powerpoint presentation may be downloaded by clicking on the following link: Future California

Bill Hagan’s meeting slides can be downloaded by clicking on this link:
Meeting Slides 1-22-20

Prof. Norris’s Powerpoint presentation on the wandering stones can be downloaded by clicking on the following link: Wandering Stones Presentation

Additional links for references and a YouTube video on the Wandering Stones:

Nature article: ‘Wandering stones’ of Death Valley explained
LA Times article: Mystery of how rocks move across Death Valley lake bed solved
YouTube video: Slithering Stones | Racetrack Playa (video)

Because of the importance of climate change and the general scientific merit of being familiar with the literature on a subject, we have included links to all 76 references that Prof. Norris used in preparing his talk. The references are noted on the relevant slide(s) and listed below by the name of the file. Most, if not all, of these files are PDF. We hope that Lyncean members as well as the public find this useful.

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Future California: REFERENCES

1-5
Audubon CA birds & climate change
Landis 2003 Pop growth San Diego
Landis 2003 Population Growth in California
Carbon footprint Jones 2013
Jones-Kammen-2014

6-10
Midwater shark ID guide
Kueppers et al. 2015 Oak future distributions
Jongsomjit_etal_2013
Westerling et al. 2011 Furture wildfire under urban sprawl
Shields & Kiel 2016 Future ATM rivers

11-15
Pierce Warmer CA climate
Cavzos 2012 Seasonal PPT in Future CA
Cavos 2012 PPT in Future CA
Stanstad et al. 2001 Population trends for California
Eletricity demand Auffhammer 2011

16-20
Barbero 2015 Very large fires in Future of US
Liu 2013 US future wildfire trends
Doerr .2015 trends in wildfire and future impacts
Richardson 2012 Fire smoke in future
MacDonald 2010 SW Climate change and Sustainability

21-25
Lee 2011 Truck farming in CA future climate
Ramanathan 2012 Black carbon in CA climate
Knowlton 2011 Heath care costs and climate events
Ganju 2010 Sed supply to CA bays in the future
Cooley 2012 Social vulnerability in CA future

26-30
Shields 2016 ATM river in future CA climate
Zhao 2011 Air quality in the future
Crook 2011 Solar power output under future Climate change
Huang 2011 Heat mortality in future climate
Cloern 2011 Future of SF Bay delta under climate change

31-35
Pathak 2018 Climate impacts on CA agriculture
Dalrymple 2012 slide set on future CA sea level rise
Moser 2015 Society and future climate
Mann 2016 humans and future CA fire risk
Byrd 2015 CA Rangeland & future climate

36-40
Thompson Salmon in CA Climate futurel
Guegan 2012 Hydropower pricing in CA future
Ficklin 2013 Sierra stream T and O & fish in the future
Bedsworth 2012 Preparing CA for the future
Georgescu 2014 Climate impact of Future urban expansion in CA

41-45
Zhao 2011 future CA air quality
Sork 2010 Valley oak dist change in CA future
Bachelet2015 Future of CA deserts
Gershunov Future climate
Dettinger 2011 Atmospheric rivers in CA future

46-50
Vahmani_2016_Cool roofs in LAs future
Mann & Gleik 2015 Drought in CA’s future
Cayan 2010 Drought in CA future
Westerling 2011 CA wildfire & growth in the future
Westerling 2008 Climate_change_and_wildfire_in_Californi