All posts by Drummer

Space-based Gravity Wave Detection System to be Deployed by ESA

All Posts, Astrophysics, Cosmology, Physics, Spacecraft and Missions, , , ,

Peter Lobner

The first detection of gravitational waves occurred on 14 September 2015 at the land-based Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO). Using optical folding techniques, LIGO has an effective baseline of 1,600 km (994 miles). See my 16 December 2015 and 11 February 2016 posts for more information on LIGO and other land-based gravitational wave detectors.

Significantly longer baselines, and theoretically greater sensitivity can be achieved with gravitational wave detectors in space. Generically, such a space-based detector has become known as a Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Three projects associated with space-based gravitational wave detection are:

  • LISA (the project name predated the current generic usage of LISA)
  • LISA Pathfinder (a space-based gravitational wave detection technology demonstrator, not a detector)
  • Evolved LISA (eLISA)

These projects are discussed below.

The science being addressed by space-based gravitational wave detectors is discussed in the eLISA white paper, “The Gravitational Universe.” You can download this whitepaper, a 1-page summary, and related gravitational wave science material at the following link:

https://www.elisascience.org/whitepaper/

LISA

The LISA project originally was planned as a joint European Space Agency (ESA) and National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) project to detect gravitational waves using a very long baseline, triangular interferometric array of three spacecraft.

Each spacecraft was to contain a gravitational wave detector sensitive at frequencies between 0.03 mHz and 0.1 Hz and have the capability to precisely measure its distances to the other two spacecraft forming the array. The equilateral triangular array, which was to measure about 5 million km (3.1 million miles) on a side, was expected to be capable of measuring gravitational-wave induced strains in space-time by precisely measuring changes of the separation distance between pairs of test masses in the three spacecraft. In 2011, NASA dropped out of this project because of funding constraints.

LISA Pathfinder

The LISA Pathfinder (LPF) is a single spacecraft intended to validate key technologies for space-based gravitational wave detection. It does not have the capability to detect gravity waves.

This mission was launched by ESA on 3 December 2015 and the spacecraft took station in a Lissajous orbit around the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point on 22 January 2016. L1 is directly between the Earth and the Sun, about 1.5 million km (932,000 miles) from Earth. An important characteristic of a Lissajous orbit is that the spacecraft will follow the L1 point without requiring any propulsion. This is important for minimizing external forces on the LISA Pathfinder experiment package. The approximate geometry of the Earth-Moon-Sun system and a representative spacecraft (not LPF, specifically) stationed at the L1 Lagrange point is shown in the following figure.

L1 Lagrange pointSource: Wikimedia Commons

The LISA Pathfinder’s mission is to validate the technologies used to shield two free-floating metal cubes (test masses), which form the core of the experiment package, from all internal and external forces that could contribute to noise in the gravitational wave measurement instruments. The on-board measurement instruments (inertial sensors and a laser interferometer) are designed to measure the relative position and orientation of the test masses, which are 38 cm (15 inches) apart, to an accuracy of less than 0.01 nanometers (10e-11 meters). This measurement accuracy is believed to be adequate for detecting gravitational waves using this technology on ESA’s follow-on mission, eLISA.

The first diagram below is an artist’s impression of the LISA Pathfinder technology package, showing the inertial sensors housing the test masses (gold) and the laser interferometer (middle platform). The second diagram provides a clearer view of the test masses and the laser interferometer.

LPF technology package 1

Source: ESA/ATG medialab, August 2015LPF technology package 2Source: ESA LISA Pathfinder briefing, 7 June 2016

You’ll find more general information in an ESA LISA Pathfinder overview, which you can download from NASA’s LISA website at the following link:

http://lisa.nasa.gov/Documentation/LISA-LPF-RP-0001_v1.1.pdf

LISA Pathfinder was commissioned and ready for scientific work on 1 March 2016. In a 7 June 2016 briefing, ESA reported very favorable performance results from LISA Pathfinder:

  • LPF successfully validated the technologies used in the local (in-spacecraft) instrument package (test masses, inertial sensors and interferometer).
  • LPF interferometer noise was a factor of 100 less than on the ground.
  • The measurement instruments can see femtometer motion of the test masses (LPF goal was picometer).
  • Performance is essentially at the level needed for the follow-on eLISA mission

You can watch this full (1+ hour) ESA briefing at the following link:

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/Watch_LISA_Pathfinder_briefing

eLISA

Evolved LISA, or eLISA, is ESA’s modern incarnation of the original LISA program described previously. ESA’s eLISA website home page is at the following link:

https://www.elisascience.org

As shown in the following diagrams, three eLISA spacecraft will form a very long baseline interferometric array that is expected to directly observe gravitational waves from sources anywhere in the universe. In essence, this array will be a low frequency microphone listening for the sounds of gravitational waves as they pass through the array.

eLISA constellation 1Source: ESAeLISA constellation 2Source: ESA

As discussed previously, gravity wave detection depends on the ability to very precisely measure the distance between test masses that are isolated from their environment but subject to the influence of passing gravitational waves. Measuring the relative motion of a pair of test masses is considerably more complex for eLISA than it was for LPF. The relative motion measurements needed for a single leg of the eLISA triangular array are:

  • Test mass 1 to Spacecraft 1
  • Spacecraft 1 to Spacecraft 2
  • Spacecraft 2 to Test Mass 2

This needs to be done for each of the three legs of the array.

LPF validated the technology for making the test mass to spacecraft measurement. Significant development work remains to be done on the spacecraft-to-spacecraft laser system that must take precise measurements at very long distances (5 million km, 3.1 million miles) of the relative motion between each pair of spacecraft.

In the 6 June 2016 LISA Pathfinder briefing, LPF and ESA officials indicated that an eLisa launch date is expected in the 2029 – 2032 time frame. Then it reaches its assigned position in a trailing heliocentric orbit, eLISA will be a remarkable collaborative technical achievement and a new window to our universe.

2016 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Was Second Lowest on Record

All Posts, Arctic, Global Climate, ,

Peter Lobner

On 15 September 2016, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, CO reported their preliminary assessment that the Arctic sea ice minimum for this year was reached on 10 September 2016.

Arctic sea ice minimum 10Sep2016Source: NSIDC

The minimum extent of the Arctic sea ice on 10 September 2016 was 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles). This is the white area in the map above. The orange line on this map shows the 1981 to 2010 median extent of the Arctic sea ice for that day.

  • There were extensive areas of open water on the Northern Sea Route along the Arctic coast of Russia (the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, and in the Laptev and East Siberian seas).
  • In contrast, there was much less open water on parts of the Northwest Passage along the Arctic coast of Canada (around Banks and Victoria Islands).

The 2016 minimum tied with 2007 for the second lowest Arctic sea ice minimum on record.

The historic Arctic sea ice minimum, which occurred in 2012, was 3.39 million square kilometers (1.31 million square miles); about 18% less than in 2016 [750,000 square kilometers (290,000 square miles) less than in 2016].

You can read the NSIDC preliminary report on the 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum at the following link:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

An historic event in the Arctic occurred in September 2016 when the commercial cruise liner Crystal Serenity, escorted by the RRS Shackleton, made the first transit of the Northwest Passage by a cruise liner. The voyage originated in Vancouver, Canada and arrived in New York City on 16 September 2016. The timing of this Arctic cruise coincided well with this year’s minimum sea ice conditions. See my 30 August 2016 post for more details on the Crystal Serenity’s historic Arctic voyage.

Floating Wave-powered Generators Offer the Potential for Commercial-scale Energy Harvesting From the Ocean

All Posts, Ocean Sciences, Power Generating Technology - Alternate, , , , , ,

Peter Lobner

The idea of extracting energy from wave motion in the open ocean is not a new one. This energy source is renewable and relatively persistent in comparison to wind and solar power. However, no commercial-scale wave power generator currently is in operation anywhere in the world. The primary issues hindering deployment of this technology are:

  • the complexity of harnessing wave power
  • the long-term impact of the harsh ocean environment (storms, constant pounding from the sea, corrosive effects of salt water) on the generating equipment
  • the high cost of generating electricity from wave power relative to almost all other energy sources, including wind and solar

In April 2014, Dave Levitan posted an article entitled, “Why Wave Power Has Lagged Far Behind as Energy Source,” on the Environment360 website. You can read this article at the following link:

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/why_wave_power_has_lagged_far_behind_as_energy_source/2760/

You’ll find a June 2014 presentation entitled, “Wave Energy Technology Brief,” by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) at the following link:

http://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/wave-energy_v4_web.pdf

The general consensus seems to be that the wave energy industry is at about the same level of maturity as the wind and solar energy industries were about 30 years ago, in the 1980s.

Several U.S. firms offer autonomous floating devices that are capable of extracting energy from the motion of ocean waves and generating usable, persistent, renewable electric power. Two of the leaders in this field are Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (OPT) in Pennington, NJ (with subsidiaries in the UK and Australia) and Northwest Energy Innovations, LLC (NWEI) in Portland, OR. Let’s take a look at their products

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (OPT)

OPT (http://www.oceanpowertechnologies.com) is the developer of the PowerBuoy®, which is a moored ocean buoy that extracts energy from the heave (vertical motion) of ocean waves and converts this into electrical energy for marine applications (i.e., offshore oil, gas, scientific and military applications) or for distribution to onshore facilities and/or connection to an onshore electric power grid. OPT currently offers PowerBuoy® in two power output ranges: up to 350 watts and up to 15 kW.

PowerBuoy   Source: OPT

The modest output from individual PowerBuoys® can be combined via an Undersea Substation Pod into a scalable wave farm to deliver significant power output to the intended user.

PowerBuoy wave farmOPT wave farm concept. Source: OPT

You’ll find a description of PowerBuoy® design and operation on the OPT website at the following link:

http://www.oceanpowertechnologies.com/powerbuoy/

OPT describes their PowerBuoy® as follows:

“The PowerBuoy consists of a float, spar, and heave plate as shown in the (following) schematic…… The float moves up and down the spar in response to the motion of the waves. The heave plate maintains the spar in a relatively stationary position. The relative motion of the float with respect to the spar drives a mechanical system contained in the spar that converts the linear motion of the float into a rotary one. The rotary motion drives electrical generators that produce electricity for the payload or for export to nearby marine applications using a submarine electrical cable. This high performance wave energy conversion system generates power even in moderate wave environments.

The PowerBuoy’s power conversion and control systems provide continuous power for these applications under the most challenging marine conditions. The spar contains space for additional battery capacity if required to ensure power is provided to a given application even under extended no wave conditions.”

PowerBuoy diagram    Source: OPT

On the OPT website, you’ll find several technical presentations on the PowerBuoy® at the following link:

http://www.oceanpowertechnologies.com/technology/

Northwest Energy Innovations, LLC (NWEI)

NWEI (http://azurawave.com) is the developer of the Azura™ wave energy device, which is a moored ocean buoy that extracts power from both the heave (vertical motion) and surge (horizontal motion) of waves to maximize energy extraction. Electric power is generated by the relative motion of a rotating / oscillating float and the hull of the Azura™ wave energy device.

Hull-Float-Pod   Source: NWEI

You can see a short video on the operating principle of the Azura™ wave energy device at the following link:

http://azurawave.com/technology/

In 2012, the Azura prototype was fabricated and deployed at the Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center (NNMREC) ocean test site offshore from Newport, OR.

NNMREC site mapSource: flickr / Oregon State University

On May 30, 2015, under a Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Navy sponsored program, NWEI deployed the improved Azura™ prototype at the Navy’s Wave Energy Test Site at the Marine Corps Base, Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. The Azura prototype extends 12 feet above the surface and 50 feet below the surface. It generates up to 18 kW of electricity.

NWETS site photo Source: NWEI

You can view a short video on the Azura being installed at the offshore site in Kaneohe Bay at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAqNOTSoNHs

In September 2016, the Azura™ prototype reached a notable milestone when it became the first wave-powered generator connected to a U.S. commercial power grid.

Conclusions

I think we all can all agree that the technology for wave-generated power still is pretty immature. The cost of wave-generated power currently is very high in comparison to most alternatives, including wind and solar power. Nonetheless, there is a lot of energy in ocean waves and the energy density can be higher than wind or solar. As the technology matures, this is an industry worth watching, but you’ll have to be patient.

Improving Heavy Tractor-Trailer Aerodynamics

All Posts, Transportation, , , , ,

This 26 September 2016 post was replaced on 3 April 2020 with my updated and expanded post, “SuperTrucks – Revolutionizing the Heavy Tractor-Trailer Freight Industry with Science,” which is available at the following link:  https://lynceans.org/all-posts/supertrucks-revolutionizing-the-heavy-tractor-trailer-freight-industry-with-science/

I hope you’ll find the new post to be informative, useful and different from any other single source on the subject.

Best regards,

Peter Lobner

3 April 2020

South Dakota’s Newest Landmark – “Dignity”

All Posts, Art, , ,

Peter Lobner

When I was in South Dakota last week, a major new landmark was created when the 50-foot tall, stainless steel statue named “Dignity” was installed on a bluff overlooking Chamberlin and the Missouri River. The statue of a young Native American woman with a star quilt was commissioned two years ago with a $1 million gift from Norm and Eunabel McKie of Rapid City, SD and was created by Sturgis, SD artist Dale Lamphere.

DSC_6091 cropPhoto by author.DSC_6082-84 panoPhoto by author.

Lamphere is quoted as saying, “My intent for this is to have the sculpture stand as an enduring symbol of our shared belief that we are in a sacred place and that we are all sacred.”

The star quilt is a traditional symbol of honor among the local Native American Lakota people. You’ll find more information on the star quilt and its symbolism at the following link.

http://aktalakota.stjo.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=8594

DSC_6078Photo by author.

Standing at the top of the bluff leaves the statue exposed to strong winds that are common in the area. To mitigate the effects of the wind, many of the pieces of the diamond quilt are articulated to allow the wind to pass freely through the stainless steel structure of the quilt.

DSC_6088Photo by author.

At the unveiling ceremony, South Dakota Governor Dennis Daugaard remarked:

“This is very meaningful for our state. In addition to being the state of Mount Rushmore and the state of Crazy Horse, I believe the prominent location of “Dignity” and the visibility she offers to so many millions of travelers who will be moving up and down Interstate 90, I think we’ll soon become not just the state of those two stone monuments, but also this beautiful metal sculpture as well.”

In the current climate of divisiveness that is permeating this nation, “Dignity” stands as a welcome symbol of hopefulness. Thank you, Norm and Eunabel McKie, for your generous gift to the state of South Dakota and to this great nation of ours.

Status of Ukraine’s Giant Transport Aircraft: Antonov An-124 and An-225

Aeronautical, All Posts, Aviation, Commercial aviation, Military technology, , , ,

Peter Lobner, updated 26 September 2023

Historically, the Antonov Design Bureau was responsible for the design and development of large military and civil transport aircraft for the former Soviet Union. With headquarters and production facilities in and around Kiev, this Ukrainian aircraft manufacturing and servicing firm is now known as Antonov State Company. The largest of the jet powered transport aircraft built by Antonov are the four-engine An-124 and the even larger six-engine An-225.

An-124 Ruslan (NATO name: Condor)

The An-124 made its first flight in December 1982 and entered operational service in 1986. This aircraft is a counterpart to the Lockheed C-5A, which is the largest U.S. military transport aircraft. A comparison of the basic parameters of these two aircraft is presented in the following table.

An-124 vs C-5A_Aviatorjoedotnet

Source: aviatorjoe.net

As you can see in this comparison, the An-124 is somewhat larger than the C-5A, which has a longer range, but at a slower maximum speed.

The An-124 currently is operated by the Russian air force and also by two commercial cargo carriers: Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines and Russia’s Volga-Dnepr Airlines. The civil An-124-100 is a commercial derivative of the military An-124. The civil version was certified in 1992, and meets all current civil standards for noise limits and avionic systems.

In their commercial cargo role, these aircraft specialize in carrying outsized and/or very heavy cargo that cannot be carried by other aircraft. These heavy-lift aircraft serve civil and military customers worldwide, including NATO and the U.S. military. I’ve seen an An-124s twice on the tarmac at North Island Naval Station in San Diego. In both cases, it arrived in the afternoon and was gone before sunrise the next day. Loading and/or unloading occurred after dark.

An-124_RA-82028_09-May-2010

An-124-100. Source: Wikimedia Commons

As shown in the following photo, the An-124 can retract its nose landing gear and “kneel” to facilitate cargo loading through the raised forward door.

An-124_ramp down

An-124-100. Source: Mike Young / Wikimedia Commons

The following diagram shows the geometry and large size of the cargo hold on the An-124. The built-in cargo handling equipment includes an overhead crane system capable of lifting and moving loads up to 30 metric tons (about 66,100 pounds) within the cargo hold. As shown in the diagram below, the cargo hold is about 36.5 meters (119.7 feet) long, 6.4 meters (21 feet) wide, and the clearance from the floor to the ceiling of the cargo hold is 4.4 meters (14.4 feet). The installed crane hoists may reduce overhead clearance to 3.51 meters (11.5 feet).

An-124-diagram_tcm87-4236

An-124-100 cargo hold dimensions. Source: aircharterservice.com

An-124_takeoff

An-124-100. Source: aircharterservice.com

Production of the An-124 was suspended following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. In spite of repeated attempts by Ukraine to restart the An-124 production line, it appears that Antonov may not have the resources to restart An-124 production. 

An-225 Mriya

The An-225 was adapted from the An-124 and significantly enlarged to serve as the carrier aircraft for the Soviet space shuttle, the Buran. The relative sizes of the An-124 and An-225 are shown in the following diagram, with a more detailed comparison in the following table.

An-124 & 225 planform comparison

An-124 & -225 comparison. Source: Airvectors.com

An-124 & 225 comparison

An-124 & -225 comparison. Source: aviatorjoe.net

The only An-225 ever produced made its first flight in December 1988. It is shown carrying the Buran space shuttle in the following photo.

AN-225 & Buran

An-225 carrying Buran space shuttle. Source: fcba.tumblr.com

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the cancellation of the Buran space program, the An-225 was mothballed for eight years until Antonov Airlines reactivated the aircraft for use as a commercial heavy-lift transport. In this role, it can carry ultra-heavy / oversize cargo weighing up to 250 metric tons (551,000 pounds).

An-225 gear down

An-225 Mriya. Source: AntonovAn-225 gear up

In 2016, it appeared that the giant An-225 was about to enter series production after Antonov and Aerospace Industry Corporation of China (AICC) signed a deal on 30 August 2016 for An-225 production in China. At the time, it was expected that the first new An-225 could be produced in China as early as in 2019. A Chinese An-225 would modernize and greatly expand China’s military and civil airlift capabilities.  While it isn’t clear how that airlift capability would be employed, it certainly will improve China’s ability to deliver heavy machinery, bulk material, and many personnel anywhere in the world, including any location in and around the South China Sea that has an adequate runway.  

26 September 2023 update

In late February 2022, the An-225 was destroyed by invading Russian forces at the Hostomel Airport near Kyiv, where the giant aircraft was undergoing regular maintenance intended to support its continued operational use into the 2030s. 

Source: Oleksii Samsonov / KCSA via The Moscow Times

Source: Oleksii Samsonov via Aero Times

A second unfinished airframe of the An-225, originally intended for ground testing, still exists at an unspecified location.  That second airframe, plus serviceable parts salvaged from the original An-225, would form a starting point for building another flyable AN-225.

Time will tell if an An-225 can be rebuilt.  I hope we’ll see Mriya fly again.

For more information

Video

Celebrate H. G. Wells 150th Birthday

All Posts, Science Fiction, , , , ,

Peter Lobner

Herbert George Wells was born on 21 September 1866 in Bromley, in southeast England. While he may be best known for his science fiction novels, H.G. Wells was a prolific writer in many genres, including history, politics, social commentary, and textbooks.

HG Wells photoH. H. G. Wells. Source: biography.com

His most memorable Victorian-era science fiction novels include:

  • The Time Machine (1895)
  • The Island of Doctor Moreau (1896)
  • The Invisible Man (1897)
  • War of the Worlds (1898)

Wells was a contemporary of Jules Verne (author of 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, Journey to the Center of the Earth, From the Earth to the Moon and much more) and Hugo Gernsbacher (author and publisher of the first science fiction magazine, Amazing Stories, and namesake for the science fiction Hugo Awards given annually by the World Science Fiction Society). Together, these men commonly are considered as the fathers of modern science fiction. Wells and Verne are strong influences on the modern science fiction subgenre known as steampunk, which incorporates Victorian-era (late 1880s) technology (steam power, early electrical devices) and design aesthetics (costumes, accessories) into a retro-futuristic alternative history of that period.

On 30 October 1938, Orson Welles’ radio adaptation of H. G. Wells War of the Worlds was broadcast on The Mercury Theater of the Air, causing a minor panic among listeners who mistook the broadcast for an actual news report of an alien invasion of Earth.

Several H. G. Wells science fiction novels have been made (and re-made) into movies.

War of the Worlds 1953 movie posterWar of the Worlds movie poster (1953). Source: Paramount Pictures

H.G. Wells also was a futurist, and he wrote extensively on his vision of life and technology in the 20th century. Important titles on this matter are:

  • Anticipation (1901)
  • The Discovery of the Future (1902)
  • The War in the Air (1908)
  • The Shape of Things to Come (1033)

Following is a brief overview of these four titles.

Anticipation (1901)

H. G. Wells’ first popular non-fiction work was entitled, Anticipations of the Reaction of Mechanical and Scientific Progress upon Human Life and Thought, which is commonly known by the shorter title, Anticipations. This work was first published in 1901 in serial form in magazines in the UK and the USA and then in book form later that same year. In Chapter 1, H. G. Wells describes the purpose of Anticipations as follows:

“It is proposed in this book to present as orderly an arrangement as the necessarily diffused nature of the subject admits, certain speculations about the trend of present forces, speculations which, taken all together, will build up an imperfect and very hypothetical, but sincerely intended forecast of the way things will probably go in this new century. Hitherto such forecasts have been presented almost invariably in the form of fiction…..Our utmost aim is a rough sketch of the coming times, a prospectus, as it were, of the joint undertaking of mankind in facing these impending years.”

The complex structure of the first sentence in the above paragraph might have been impressive enough to win H.G. Wells an award in the Bulwer – Lytton Fiction Contest (see my 6 September 2016 post on BLFC).

Anticipations is organized into nine chapters as follows:

  • Chapter 1: Locomotion in the Twentieth Century
  • Chapter 2: The Probable Diffusion of Great Cities
  • Chapter 3: Developing Social Elements
  • Chapter 4: Certain Social Reactions
  • Chapter 5: The Life History of Democracy
  • Chapter 6: War
  • Chapter 7: The Conflict of Language
  • Chapter 8: The Larger Synthesis
  • Chapter 9: The Faith, Morals, and Public Policy of the New Republic

You’ll find the full text of the 4th edition (1902) of Anticipations on the Internet Archive website at the following link:

https://archive.org/details/anticipationsofr00welluoft

For a quick synopsis of Anticipations, I refer you to Wikipedia at the following link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticipations

With 115 years of hindsight, many of H. G. Wells’ predictions in Anticipations seem quite accurate, particularly with respect to the evolution of motor vehicles, development of urban sprawl, and the evolution of warfare to adapt to the availability of motor vehicles and aircraft. Within two years of publication, H. G. Wells publically took a stand against eugenics and for human rights, contrary to positions he had taken in Chapter 9 of Anticipations.

The Discovery of the Future (1902)

H. G. Wells provided another perspective on the future in his 1902 lecture at the Royal Institution of London, entitled The Discovery of the Future, which was published in magazines in the UK and USA and later published as a book. His basic thesis is that there are “two divergent types of minds” that can influence the future.

  • “The first of these two types of mind, and it is, I think, the predominant type, the type of the majority of living people, is that which seems scarcely to think about the future at all, which regards it as a sort of blank non-existence upon which the advancing present will presently write events.”
    • Retrospective
    • Interprets the present entirely with relationship to the past
    • Legal or submissive; referring to precedents set
    • Passive; the mind of age
  • “The second type, which is, I think, a more modern and much less abundant type of mind, thinks constantly and by preference of things to come, and of present things mainly in relation to the results that must arise from them.”
    • Constructive
    • Interprets the present entirely in relation to things designed or foreseen
    • Legislative, creative, organizing, masterful; perpetually attacking and altering the established order of things
    • Sees the world as one great workshop, and the present is no more than the material for the future, for the thing that is yet destined to be.
    • Active; the mind of youth

In this book, Wells states:

“I believe that it is not sufficiently recognized just how different in their consequences these two methods are, and just where their difference and where the failure to appreciate their difference takes one.”

Later in this book, Wells states:

“I must confess that I believe quite firmly that an inductive knowledge of a great number of things in the future is becoming a human possibility. I believe that the time is drawing near when it will be possible to suggest a systematic exploration of the future.”

He concludes this book by stating:

“All this world is heavy with the promise of greater things, and a day will come, one day in the unending succession of days, when beings, beings who are now latent in our thoughts and hidden in our loins, shall stand upon this earth as one stands upon a footstool, and shall laugh and reach out their hands amid the stars.”

You’ll find the full text of The Discovery of the Future on the Internet Archive website at the following link:

https://archive.org/details/discoveryoffutur00welliala

The War in the Air (1908)

This science fiction novel, serialized and published in 1908, provided a prophetic view of the use of aircraft and airships in warfare. This basic vision of military air power would be realized in less than a decade during World War I (July 1914 – November 1918), though at a much less destructive scale than in the novel.

You can download the audiobook from the Internet Archive at the following link:

https://archive.org/details/war_in_air_1110_librivox

You can read a short synopsis of this novel on Wikipedia at the following link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_in_the_Air

The Shape of Things to Come (1933)

Coming only 15 years after the end of World War I, this science fiction novel is a cautionary tale that addresses the terrible consequences of a future international war. Following the start of war in 1940, the plot follows the decay of society, the rise of local warlords and their fall following the creation of a benevolent “Dictatorship of the Air” to restore worldwide peace. The story jumps forward in time to the year 2036, where technology provides a high standard of living for all citizens. Nonetheless, there remains a tension between the technical leadership and citizens who are against progress.

A loose adaptation of the novel was made into the science fiction movie Things to Come, which was released in 1936.

Things to Come 1936 movie posterjpgThings to Come movie poster (1936)

The movie portrayed many of the advanced technologies that exist in 2036; many of which have become commonplace in our modern life, including desktop video displays, big flat screen television, global communications, compound helicopters, hydroponics, use of composite materials in building construction instead of steel. Other technologies, such as monorail urban transportation, powerful (laser) mining machines, large-scale holographic projectors, and an electric Space Gun for launching a manned spacecraft on a circumlunar journey from Earth, will have to wait a bit longer.

You can view the complete movie on YouTube at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn76zoYjr4k

You’ll find a good summary of the movie by Mark Bourne at the following link:

http://markbourne.blogspot.com/2010/11/things-to-come-1936-hg-wells-explains.html

Some of the technologies appearing in the movie are discussed in a six-page article in the May 1936 issue of Modern Mechanix & Inventions Magazine. You’ll find the complete Modern Mechanix article at the following link:

http://blog.modernmechanix.com/h-g-wells-things-to-come/

Modern Mechanica May 1936

As a writer and futurist, H. G. Wells has enriched our lives in many ways. I hope you’ll follow the links posted above and take some time to get a better understanding of this great man.

Breakthrough Starshot: Crashing Through Interstellar Dust and Gas Clouds at 0.2c

All Posts, Nanotechnology, Spacecraft and Missions, ,

Peter Lobner

Yuri and Julia Milner founded the Breakthrough Initiatives in 2015 to explore the universe, seek scientific evidence of life beyond Earth, and encourage public debate from a planetary perspective. You’ll find an introduction to Breakthrough Initiatives at the following link:

https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/About

There are three initiatives described on this website:

Breakthrough Listen: This is a $100 million program of astronomical observations in search of evidence of intelligent life beyond Earth. It is by far the most comprehensive, intensive and sensitive search ever undertaken for artificial radio and optical signals. It includes a complete survey of the 1 million nearest stars, the plane and center of our galaxy, and the 100 nearest galaxies. All data will be open to the public.

Breakthrough Message: This is a $1 million competition to design a message representing Earth, life and humanity that could potentially be understood by another civilization.

Breakthrough Starshot: Yuri Milner and physicist Stephen Hawking announced the Breakthrough Starshot initiative on 12 April 2016. This is a $100 million research and engineering program with the goal of demonstrating proof-of-concept for a new technology: using laser light to accelerate ultra-light, unmanned, light sail spacecraft to 20% of the speed of light (0.2 c; 1.34 e+8 mph; 6.0e+7 meters/sec); and thereby enable a flyby mission to the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri, within a generation.

Breakthrough Starshot involves particularly intriguing engineering challenges. This initiative plans to launch many lightweight, light sail spacecraft from Earth and then individually accelerate each spacecraft to about 0.2 c using powerful terrestrial lasers. These lightweight spacecraft are expected to accelerate to about 0.2 c within a few minutes after laser propulsion begins. When the target speed has been reached, laser propulsion would be discontinued and the spacecraft will coast the rest of the way to its destination.

Solar sailing spacecraftThe Breakthrough Starshot light sail spacecraft after initial deployment, before the start of laser propulsion. Source: Breakthrough Starshot Initiative

Terrestrial laser power sourceThe terrestrial laser power source for the Breakthrough Starshot spacecraft. Source: Breakthrough Starshot Initiative

Breakthrough Starshot propelled by lasersBreakthrough Starshot light sail spacecraft being propelled by the terrestrial lasers. Source: Breakthrough Starshot Initiative

Spacecraft underwat toward deep spaceBreakthrough Starshot light sail spacecraft under power, heading for deep space. Source: Breakthrough Starshot Initiative

You can watch a short video on the Breakthrough Starshot spacecraft at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMkWGN1G6Kg

A detailed video (1hr 16 min) on this initiative, with discussions by Stephen Hawking and Freeman Dyson, is at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cVQwDdYF4w

While the concept of a terrestrial laser-powered, ultra-light, light sail spacecraft is intriguing, the reality of flying through interstellar space at a speed of 0.2 c relative to low-density cosmic dust and gas along the route may raise daunting engineering challenges related to spacecraft survivability. The approach being taken by the Breakthrough Starshot initiative will be to launch many light sail spacecraft to provide redundancy and improve the likelihood of mission success.

How much damage could a grain of space dust inflict on a spacecraft? The worst case would be for the spacecraft to absorb all the kinetic energy from the collision.

Wikipedia reports that cosmic dust falling to Earth has been studied and found to be composed of grains with masses between 10−16 kg and 10−4 kg.

The classical Newtonian equation for kinetic energy (Ek) will yield an adequate approximation of the kinetic energy transferred in an impact at a speed of 0.2 c:

Ek = ½ mv2

where m is the mass of the projectile, and v2 is the square of the velocity of the projectile.

The maximum kinetic energy deposited by a cosmic dust particle with an “average” mass, 10−10 kg, is estimated to be:

Ek = 0.5 (1e-10 kg)(3.6e+15 m2/sec2) = 1.8e+5 kg-m2/sec2 = 180,000 Joules

This is about 40 times the maximum kinetic energy of a projectile fired from a 12-gauge shotgun. That would be quite damaging, so hopefully there is a very low probability of encountering cosmic dust of this mass. In this case, that v2 term in the equation has a very bad effect on kinetic energy.

In comparison, the maximum kinetic energy deposited by a cosmic dust particle at the low end of the mass range, 10−16 kg, is estimated to be:

Ek = 0.5 (1e-16 kg)(3.6e+15 m2/sec2) = 1.8e-1 kg-m2/sec2 = 0.18 Joules

This is in the approximate kinetic energy range of a small projectile fired from an airsoft (paintball) type gun. If the spacecraft isn’t damaged, the momentum transfer, even from smaller impacts such as this, may be sufficient to alter the course of the spacecraft. As you can see, cosmic dust can be quite hazardous to fast moving spacecraft.

You can read more about the Breakthrough Starshot initiative at the following links:

arsTECHNICA, 23 August 2016: “Just how dangerous is it to travel at 20% the speed of light?

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/08/could-breakthrough-starshots-ships-survive-the-trip/

National Geographic, 13 April 2016: “Is the New $100 Million ‘Starshot’ for Real?”

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160413-fast-facts-stephen-hawking-starshot-space/

Winners of the Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest

All Posts, Literature, , ,

Peter Lobner

Bulwer-Lytton old logo

You’ll find the home page for this fascinating literary contest at the following link:

https://www.bulwer-lytton.com

For a quick background, I’ve excerpted the following description from this website:

“Since 1982 the English Department at San Jose State University has sponsored the Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest, a whimsical literary competition that challenges entrants to compose the opening sentence to the worst of all possible novels. The contest (hereafter referred to as the BLFC) was the brainchild (or Rosemary’s baby) of Professor Scott Rice, whose graduate school excavations unearthed the source of the line “It was a dark and stormy night.”

“Conceived to honor the memory of Victorian novelist Edward George Earl Bulwer-Lytton and to encourage unpublished authors who do not have the time to actually write entire books, the contest challenges entrants to compose bad opening sentences to imaginary novels. Bulwer was selected as patron of the competition because he opened his novel “Paul Clifford” (1830) with the immortal words, “It was a dark and stormy night.” Lytton’s sentence actually parodied the line and went on to make a real sentence of it, but he did originate the line “The pen is mightier than the sword,” and the expression “the great unwashed.” His best known work, one on the book shelves of many of our great-grandparents, is “The Last Days of Pompeii” (1834), an historical novel that has been adapted for film multiple times.”

Here are the basic rules, which are described in more detail on the above website:

  • Each entry must consist of a single sentence but you may submit as many entries as you wish.
  • Sentences may be of any length but we strongly recommend that entries not go beyond 50 or 60 words.
  • Entries must be “original” (as it were) and previously unpublished.

Judges select an overall winner and runner-up, as well as winners and “dishonorable mentions” in the following categories:

  • Adventure
  • Children’s literature
  • Crime / detective
  • Fantasy
  • Historical
  • Horror
  • Purple prose
  • Romance
  • Science fiction
  • Vile puns
  • Miscellaneous

Of course, the contest wouldn’t be complete without the Grand Panjandrum’s Special Award.

2016 Winners:

Here’s the direct link to the 2016 contest winners:

https://www.bulwer-lytton.com/copy-of-2018-winners-1

The overall winner was William “Barry” Brockett from Tallahassee, FL, whose winning entry was the following:

“Even from the hall, the overpowering stench told me the dingy caramel glow in his office would be from a ten-thousand-cigarette layer of nicotine baked on a naked bulb hanging from a frayed wire in the center of a likely cracked and water-stained ceiling, but I was broke, he was cheap, and I had to find her.”

I’m sure you’ll enjoy the other 2016 winners and the “dishonorable mentions.” But don’t stop there. The Bulwer-Lytton archives back to 1999 are available on their website. Unfortunately (or maybe, fortunately) earlier contest results appear to have been lost. The contest organizers remarked:

“At some point in time, we may come across them on a sheaf of forgotten parchment, a roll of dead papyrus, or more likely, a dusty floppy disk. If and when that happy day arrives, we shall post that information on this site post haste. Until then, we share your pain at their absence.”

The website explains how to submit your own entries for the next competition in 2017. Start now and “compose the opening sentence to the worst of all possible novels.” The judges may love it, and you’ll earn some minor bragging rights for your creative writing skills. Your English teacher would be so proud!

Update 24 September 2016:

Lyncean speaker Dave Zobel won the BLFC Grand Prize in 2004 with the following entry:

“She resolved to end the love affair with Ramon tonight … summarily, like Martha Stewart ripping the sand vein out of a shrimp’s tail … though the term “love affair” now struck her as a ridiculous euphemism … not unlike “sand vein,” which is after all an intestine, not a vein … and that tarry substance inside certainly isn’t sand … and that brought her back to Ramon.”

Dave’s September 2015 talk was entitled, “The Science of TV’s ‘The Big Bang Theory’: Explanations Even Penny Would Understand.”

Update 4 October 2018:

You’ll also find winning entries since 2016 listed under the “Winning Entries” tab on the Bulwer-Lytton website.

Philae Found in a Rocky Ditch on Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

All Posts, Spacecraft and Missions, , , , ,

Peter Lobner

In my 24 August 2016 post, “Exploring Microgravity Worlds,” I described the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Rosetta mission to comet 67P and the Philae lander, which was intended to make a soft landing on 67P and attach itself to the surface. However, the securing devices (a pair of harpoons and screws on each leg) failed to work upon touching the surface the first time. In the microgravity environment of 67P, Philae rebounded and eventually came to rest adjacent to a rocky outcropping seen in a post-landing photo.

Rosetta_Auto52Main components of the Philae lander. Source: Philae teamPhilae as it was intended to land.Philae as it was intended to look after landing. Source: MEDIALAB/AFP/Getty ImagesPhilae landing photoView from Philae’s actual landing site. Source: ESA

On 2 September 2016, the ESA team managing the Rosetta mission found Philae in photographs taken from the Rosetta spacecraft at an altitude of about 2.7 km (1.7 miles) above the surface of 67P. The photos show that Philae, which is about the size of a washing machine, is lying on its side, wedged among large rocks. Knowing Philae’s actual orientation and environment is expected to help ESA reevaluate the data Philae transmitted from its resting place.

Philae is the “poster child” for the hazards of landing on microgravity worlds.

Philae_close-up_node_full_image_2Philae’s final resting place on comet 67P. Source: ESAPhilae_close-up_labelled_node_full_image_2Annotated Philae photo. Source: ESA

Meanwhile, Rosetta is being maneuvered into ever-closer orbits around 67P, with the goal be taking measurements of the comet’s “atmosphere” very close to the surface. The Rosetta mission is expected to come to an end in September 2016 with the spacecraft colliding with 67P.