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100th Meeting of the Lyncean Group

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Peter Lobner

Congratulations to the Lyncean Group founders who had the vision in November 2002 to create the Group as a forum for retired and semi-retired technical professionals to meet regularly to discuss subjects associated with science and technology, to learn from one another, to share thoughts and ideas, and to enjoy their mutual interest in science, technology and related fields.

Coin Front         Coin Back

Bill Hagan reported that Lyncean Group membership now stands at 122, and this week’s meeting was the 100th meeting of the Lyncean Group. To commemorate this milestone, Dr. Lorenz (Larry) Kull was recognized as the chief instigator behind the formation of the Lyncean Group. Larry was presented with a Lyncean clock made by Bill Hagan’s Dad.

Larry Kull 100th meeting

Larry noted that it really was the founder’s wives who were the driving force for forming the Lyncean Group because it would give the founders a reason to get out of the house more often.

Starting with meeting #2 in February 2003, each meeting has included a presentation by a Lyncean Group member or an invited guest speaker. You can access the list of past meetings from the Lyncean Group home page or directly from the following link:

https://lynceans.org/pastmeetings/

In most cases, the list of past meetings includes links to the presentation material also available on the Lyncean Group website. For the 100th meeting, guest speaker, Dr. Hosseni Eslambolchi, made an outstanding presentation on, “The Power of Technology to Transform the Future.”

Top 10 tech trends crop

Dr. Eslambolchi’s presentation slides have been posted on the Lyncean Group website and are available to view or download.

Future meetings already are scheduled well into 2016. Our next meeting will be on 27 January 2016. To see the list of planned speakers and topics, you can access the schedule from the Lyncean Group home page or directly from the following link:

https://lynceans.org/upcoming/

As of today, there are 100 posts on the Lyncean technical blog site, Pete’s Lynx; the last being, “100th Anniversary of Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity and the Advent of a New Generation of Gravity Wave Detectors.” You can access the blog site from the Lyncean Group home page or directly from the following link:

https://lynceans.org/petes-lynx/

If you have comments on this blog, please use the Contacts page on the Lyncean Group website to send Pete a message. The following link will take you to that page.

https://lynceans.org/contact/

Thanks to all Lyncean Group members for helping to make the Group a success through your participation in the group’s meetings. Just try to imagine the technical topics we will be addressing in the next 100 meetings. Our mutual interest in the rapidly changing technologies affecting our world should make for lively discussions and engaging meetings.

Happy holidays to all!

100th Anniversary of Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity and the Advent of a New Generation of Gravity Wave Detectors

All Posts, Astrophysics, Cosmology, Physics, , , , , , , , , , ,

Peter Lobner

One hundred years ago, Albert Einstein presented his General Theory of Relativity in November 1915, at the Prussian Academy of Science. Happy Anniversary, Dr. Einstein!

Today, general relativity is being tested with unprecedented accuracy with a new generation of gravity-wave “telescopes” in the U.S., Italy, Germany, and Japan. All are attempting to directly detect gravity waves, which are the long-predicted quakes in space-time arising from cataclysmic cosmic sources.

The status of four gravity-wave telescopes is summarized below.

USA: Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)

LIGO is a multi-kilometer-scale gravitational wave detector that uses laser interferometry to, hopefully, measure the minute ripples in space-time caused by passing gravitational waves. LIGO consists of two widely separated interferometers within the United States; one in Hanford, WA and the other in Livingston, LA. These facilities are operated in unison to detect gravitational waves. The Livingston and Hanford LIGO sites are shown in the following photos (Hanford above, Livingston below):

ligo-hanford-aerial-02Source LIGO Caltechligo-livingston-aerial-03Source: LIGO Caltech

LIGO is operated by Caltech and MIT and is supported by the National Academy of Sciences. For more information, visit the LIGO website at the following link:

https://ligo.caltech.edu/page/about

Basically, LIGO is similar to the traditional interferometer used in 1887 in the famous Michelson-Morley experiment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelson–Morley_experiment). However, the LIGO interferometer incorporates novel features to greatly increase its sensitivity. The basic arrangement of the interferometer is shown in the following diagram.

LIGO experiment setupSource: LIGO Caltech

Each leg of the interferometer has a physical length of 4 km and is a resonant Fabry-Perot cavity that uses a complex set of mirrors to extend the effective arm length by a factor of 400 to 1,600 km.

On 18 September 2015, the first official “observing run” using LIGO’s advanced detectors began. This “observing run” is planned to last three months. LIGO’s advanced detectors are already three times more sensitive than Initial LIGO was by the end of its observational lifetime in 2007. You can read about this milestone event at the following link:

https://ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20150918

You also can find much more information on the LIGO Scientific Collaboration (LSC) at the following link:

http://www.ligo.org

Italy: VIRGO

VIRGO is installed near Pisa, Italy, at the site of the European Gravitational Observatory (http://www.ego-gw.it/public/virgo/virgo.aspx). VIRGO is intended to directly observe gravitational waves using a Michelson interferometer with arms that are 3 km long, with resonant Fabry-Perot cavities that increase the effective arm length by a factor of 50 to 150 km. The initial version of VIRGO operated from 2007 to 2011 and the facility currently is being upgraded with a new, more sensitive detector. VIRGO is expected to return to operation in 2018.

You can find much more information on VIRGO at the following link:

http://www.virgo-gw.eu

Germany: GEO600

GEO600 is installed near Hanover, Germany. It, too, uses a Michelson interferometer with arms that are 600 meters long, with resonant Fabry-Perot cavities that double the effective arm length to 1,200 meters.

You can find much more information on the GEO600 portal at the following link:

http://www.geo600.org

Japan: KAGRA Large-scale Cryogenic Gravitational Wave Telescope

The KAGRA telescope is installed deep underground, in tunnels of Kamioka mine, as shown in the following diagram.

img_abt_lcgtSource: KAGARA

Like the other facilities described previously, KAGRA is a Michelson interferometer with resonant Fabry-Perot cavities. The physical length of each arm is of 3 km (1.9 mi). KAGRA is expected to be in operation in 2018.

You can find much more information on KAGARA at the following links:

http://www.astro.umd.edu/~miller/Compact/lcgt.pdf

and,

http://gwcenter.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/

The Magnus Effect and its Broad Applications: From Sports to Ballistics to Dam Busting in WW II

Aeronautical, All Posts, Physics, , ,

Peter Lobner

The Magnus effect occurs when a moving spherical or cylindrical body has a spin. The observed effect is that the moving, spinning body moves away from the intended direction of travel. The spin alters the airflow around the moving body and, by conservation of momentum, generates the Magnus force. In the case of a flying (thrown) backspinnning round body shown below, the Magnus force is a lift.

Sketch_of_Magnus_effectSource: Wikipedia

The Magnus force is named for German physicist Heinrich Gustav Magnus, who described the effect in 1852. Other scientists had described the effect long before Magnus, notably Isaac Newton (in 1672) and British mathematician and ballistic researcher Benjamin Robins (in 1742), but it was Magnus who got the honor.

We can see the Magnus effect at work in sports and in other applications discussed below.

Baseball

The pitcher can impart a spin in a selected direction to throw a curveball, slider or other pitch. Major League Baseball (MLB) uses a system called PITCHf/x, which is installed in every MLB stadium, to track the speed and trajectory of pitched baseballs. The system calculates two values, BRK and PFX, related to the Magnus effect:

  • BRK is a measure of the amount of bend in the trajectory at its greatest distance from a straight line
  • PFX is a measure of the deflection of the baseball due to the spin and drag forces from the path it would have taken under the influence of gravity alone

You can find more information on PITCHf/x at the following links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PITCHf/x

and,

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/pitch-fx/

Golf

A backspin on a golf ball creates a lift, as shown in the diagram above, helping to extend the range of the shot. A topspin has the opposite effect, shortening the ball’s trajectory. A spin about a vertical or diagonal axis results in a slice or hook to the right or left, invariably putting the ball into deep grass or some other course hazard. I have trouble visualizing how a golfer imparts a spin about the ball’s vertical or diagonal axis, but apparently it is a lot easier that you might think.

Extreme basketball

Thanks to Dave Groce, who forwarded the following link to a video that demonstrates how the Magnus effect helped a group in Tasmania sink a basketball from the top of a dam.  I have a feeling that there were a lot more basketballs at the bottom of the dam than are shown in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OSrvzNW9FE

Ballistics

A spinning bullet will encounter a Magnus force if it yaws slightly in flight (i.e., direction of the central axis of the bullet is slightly different than its direction of flight, or velocity vector) or is shot into a crosswind. The direction of the Magnus force will depend on the direction of yaw or crosswind. A sniper shooting at long range needs to consider the Magnus effect.

WW II Dambusters

As reported on the Bomber Command website (http://www.bombercommandmuseum.ca/damsraid1.html):

 “The Dams Raid was conceived in the brilliant mind of Barnes Wallis, an experienced aircraft designer. Wallis had designed the very successful Wellington bomber that had been operational since the beginning of the war and, in his spare time, he searched for weaknesses in the enemy’s industrial infrastructure. The hydroelectric dams of the highly Ruhr Valley became his focus.

He devised a cylindrical, 9,500 pound weapon that could be dropped at low level while rotating backwards at 500 rpm. Released from a height of 60 feet, about 450 yards from the dam, and at a speed of 230 miles per hour, the weapon would then skip along the water (and over any torpedo nets) until it struck the dam wall, the spinning maintaining the weapon’s stability and slowing it down.

The backward rotation would then cause the cylinder to roll down the dam wall where it would explode at a predetermined depth. The wall would be weakened and the great weight of water would cause the dam to collapse.”

Experiments performed by Wallis demonstrated that the Magnus effect gave aerodynamic lift to the bomb and thereby increased the number of bounces before the bomb either struck the dam or stopped bouncing and sank.

p_damsraid1bSource: Bomber Command Museum

There is much more information on Sir Barnes Wallis and the Dams Raid on the Bomber Command website.

For more information, I also recommend the book, “Dam Busters: The True Story of the Inventors and Airmen Who Led the Devastating Raid to Smash the German Dams in 1943,” by James Holland, published by Grove Press, New York, and available in paperback in 2014, ISBN-13: 978-0802122780.

Compact, Mobile 3D Scanning Systems that can Render a Complete, Editable 3D Model in Minutes

All Posts, Computer Technology, , , ,

Peter Lobner

The Cubify (cubify.com) iSense 3D scanner is a high-resolution, infra red depth sensor that clips onto an iPad, uses the iPad camera, accelerometer and gyroscopes to understand its orientation relative to the subject, and with the all-important 3D scanning application running on the iPad, creates a scale 3D model of the subject.

iSenseSource: Cubify

I first saw the iSense 3D scanner demonstrated in July 2015 at Comic-Con San Diego. With the scanner attached to the back of an iPad, the person conducting the demonstration selected a subject to be scanned and then walked around that person at a distance of about three feet while monitoring the real-time scan progress on the iPad screen. In about 90 seconds the scan around the subject was complete and it took about another 90 seconds for the software to render the 3D model (a “point cloud”) of the subject’s head. Since this was a quick demonstration, there were a couple of small voids in the 3D model (i.e., under the chin and nose where the scanner didn’t “see”), but otherwise, the resulting model was an accurate scale representation of the subject. What was even more remarkable was that this process was done using the computing power of a current-generation iPad. The resulting color 3D model could be processed further (i.e., to create a mesh model) or sent for printing to a local 3D printer or a printing service accessed via the internet. A version of iSense for the iPhone also is available.

You can read the technical specifications for iSense at the following link:

http://cubify.com/products/isense

A similar scanner with greater capabilities is the Structure Sensor from Occipital Labs. The Structure Sensor operates over greater distances than the iSense and appears to be intended to support a greater range applications, including the following:

  • Capture dense 3D models of objects
    • When used as a 3D scanner, Structure Sensor allows you to capture dense geometry in real-time and create high-fidelity 3D models with high-resolution textures.
    • The resulting model can be sent to a printer for manufacturing, or used in connection with a simulation tool to model the real world physics behavior of the object.
    • The Structure Sensor uses the iPad’s color camera to add high-quality color textures to the 3D model captured.
  • Measure entire rooms all at once.
    • 3D depth sensing enables the rapid capture of accurate, dimensions of objects and environments.
    • Structure Sensor captures everything in view, all at once.
    • Software simplifies large-scale reconstruction tasks
  • Unlock the power of real-time occlusion and physics
    • Once objects or whole environments have been captured by Structure Sensor, the resulting model constitutes a virtual environment with specified physical properties. Other virtual objects can interact with this model based on the assigned physical properties (i.e., bounce off surfaces, move under tables or behind structures, etc.)
    • Virtual environments can be rapidly developed and integrated seamlessly with games or simulations

You can find more information on the Structure Sensor at the following link:

http://structure.io

If you are curious about this type of scanning technology, there are several demonstrations available on YouTube. If you are willing to spend 21 minutes to watch a detailed test of the Structure Sensor, I recommend the 9 December 2014, “Tested In-Depth: Structure Sensor 3D Scanner,” by Will and Norm, which you can view at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnOzzbl0Uqw

Here are a few screen shots from Will & Norm’s scanning demonstration. During the scan, the white areas represent areas that have been successfully scanned.

Structure Sensor scan 1

The complete point cloud model is shown below. This model can be rotated and viewed from any angle.

Structure Sensor scan 2

The rendered model, with colors and textures captured by the iPad’s camera, is shown below.

Structure Sensor scan 3

So, at Uncle Joe’s 90th birthday party, get out your iPad with an iSense or Structure Sensor, capture Uncle Joe in 3D, and print a bust of Uncle Joe to commemorate the occasion. If you’re more ambitious, you can capture the whole room with a Structure Sensor and build a game or simulation into this virtual environment.

Recent reviews posted online indicate that this type of 3D scanning is not yet mature and it may be difficult to get repeatable good results. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see the creative applications of this scanning technology that emerge in the future.

The Complexity of a WW II P-47 Thunderbolt’s Powerplant

Aeronautical, All Posts, Aviation, , , , , , , ,

Peter Lobner

The P-47 Thunderbolt, built by Republic Aviation, was a powerful WW II fighter that was capable of operating effectively at high-altitude as a long-range bomber escort or at low altitude as a fighter bomber. That tactical flexibility was enabled by its turbocharged Pratt & Whitney Double Wasp R-2800, two-row, 18-cylinder radial engine. A representative P-47D is shown in the following photo.

P-47D_DSC09072Source: Author photo

Basic specifications for a P-47D are listed below (Source: National Museum of the USAF):

  • Engine: One Pratt & Whitney R-2800 radial rated at 2,430 hp
  • Maximum speed: 433 mph
  • Cruising speed: 350 mph
  • Range: Approx. 1,100 miles with drop tanks
  • Ceiling: 42,000 ft.
  • Armament: Eight .50-cal machine guns and 2,500 lbs. of bombs or rockets
  • Span: 40 ft. 9 in.
  • Length: 36 ft. 2 in.
  • Height: 14 ft. 8 in.
  • Weight: 17,500 lbs. maximum

The basic engine installation can be seen in the following illustration of a P-47 without its engine cowling:

P-47 no engine cowlingSource: https://www.flickr.com/photos/wingmanphoto/7166461822/

The R-2800 engine is turbocharged, with the turbocharger, intercooler, and related subsystems all located behind the pilot. There is a lot of intake ductwork needed to get ambient air routed from the main air duct intake immediately under the engine to the turbocharger and intercooler and then back to the carburetors on the engine.

  • The air entering the turbocharger is compressed and, in the process, is heated. This air passes through the intercooler where it is cooled before being directed back to the engine and the carburetors for each of the 18 cylinders.
  • The air entering the intercooler cools the compressed air from the turbocharger’s compressor and then is discharged through exit doors on the sides of the P-47 fuselage, aft of the pilot.

Similarly, there is a lot of exhaust system ductwork needed to collect the exhaust from 18 cylinders into tailpipes and then route it back to drive the turbine section of the turbocharger and then be discharged via the main exhaust on the bottom of the P-47 fuselage.

These basic intake air and exhaust flow paths are shown in the following diagram.

P-47 powewrtrain_DSC_5382 cropSource: National Museum of the USAF

While visiting the National Museum of WW II Aviation in Colorado Springs, CO, I saw the complete P-47 powertrain shown in the following photo. The engine is at the extreme left, the turbocharger is at the extreme right, and the intercooler is at the point where the carburetor air duct (top) converges in a “V” with the main air duct (bottom). The darker exhaust tailpipes flank the main air duct along the bottom of the powerplant.

P-47 powertrain_DSC_7265-66 panoSource: Author photo

From the front, the Pratt & Whitney R-2800 dominates the view in the following photo. The main air duct intake is visible under the engine. The carburetor air duct (top), and the main air duct and darker exhaust tailpipe (bottom) are visible to the left, behind the engine.

P-47 powertrain_DSC_7258Source: Author photo

From the back of the powerplant, the turbocharger dominates the view in the following photo. As shown by the arrows, intake air enters the compressor section of the turbocharger from the top (grey arrow) and exits via the volute (red arrow), headed for the intercooler. The darker exhaust tailpipe can be seen connecting to the turbine secion of the turbocharger (below the red arrow) and exhausting under the turbocharger (yellow arrow).

P-47 powertrain_DSC_7262Source: Author photo

The following photo shows more clearly the connection of the exhaust tailpipes to the turbine section of the turbocharger and the exhaust point from the turbine section (beneath the P-47’s fuselage). Also shown is the intercooler, which is a heat exchanger that receives cool ambient air from the main air intake duct and warm, compressed air from the turbocharger’s compressor discharge (red arrow). After cooling the compressed air headed for the carburetors, the intercooler exhausts through rectangular ducts on the sides of the P-47 (yellow arrow).

P-47 powertrain_DSC_7260Source: Author photo

A better view of the intercooler exhaust duct (one of two) is shown in the following photo.

P-47 powertrain_DSC_7268Source: Author photo

So there you have it. While the P-47 looks bulky , this is largely due to the use of a big radial engine plus all of the ductwork, intercooler and turbocharger hardware packaged inside the fuselage.

Which is More Technologically Advanced: Star Wars or Star Trek?

All Posts, Science Fiction, ,

Peter Lobner

With the new movie, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, being released this week, I thought this would be an appropriate time to consider how Star Wars technology compares to the technology in another popular sci-fi series: Star Trek.

On the surface, the Star Wars Empire has much larger and more imposing faster-than-light starships than the Star Trek Federation. See the relative size comparison below.

StarWars-StarTrek ship comparisonSource: http://www.daltonator.net/fanfics/multi/images/scales/comphigh.jpg

Of course, there are many other factors to be considered in the technology comparison. Fortunately, there already has been a lot written on this subject. I refer you to two recent articles.

Author Todd Gardiner published a technology comparison on 29 March 2015, which you can read on GIZMODO, at the following link:

http://gizmodo.com/which-is-more-technologically-advanced-star-wars-or-sta-1707741072

StarTrek vs StarWarsSource: GIZMODO

The two sci-fi technologies were compared and ranked in the following categories:

  • Transportation: Tie
  • Energy generation: Tie
  • Communication: Star Trek +1/2
  • Manufacturing: Star Trek +1
  • Construction: Star Wars: +1
  • Military: Tie
  • Medical technology: Tie
  • Robots and computing: Star Wars +1/2
  • Field manipulation (artificial gravity, shields, etc.): Tie
  • Social technology: Not factored into score, but the Star Wars Federation espouses betterment of the all citizens, while the Star Wars Empire is essentially a feudal society on a galactic scale.
  • Size: Not factored into the score, but the Star Trek “universe” (Federation + Klingons + other civilizations) includes much less of our galaxy than the Empire in Star Wars.

The net result of Todd Gardiner’s comparison was a tie between Star Wars and Star Trek technologies.

On 10 April 2015, a similar comparison written by Harry Guinness appeared in MakeUseOf, at the following link:

http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/star-trek-star-wars-technologically-advanced/

StarTrek vs StarWars 2Source: MakeUseOf

The author noted that, “Star Trek writers at least attempted to create plausible explanations for the technology. …..it’s easy to see why some fans consider Star Wars to be an epic space fantasy rather than a science fiction tale”.

Nonetheless, Star Wars and Star Trek technologies were compared and ranked in the following categories:

  • Androids: Star Trek +1
  • Medical: Star Trek +1
  • Engines: Tie
  • Weapons: Star Trek +1
  • Sensors, Shields, Replicators and Transporters: Star Trek +1
  • The Force: Star Wars ± 1/2

In this comparison, Star Trek wins by a large margin.

So, what do you think? In a head-to-head space battle, would you rather be serving on an Imperial Star Destroyer or on one of the Federation’s Galaxy-class or Sovereign-class starships?

Using Light Instead of Radio Frequencies, Li-Fi has the Potential to Replace Wi-Fi for High-speed Local Network Communications

All Posts, Computer Technology, Information Technology, , , ,

Peter Lobner

Professor Harald Haas (University of Edinburgh) invented Li-Fi wireless technology, which is functionally similar to radio-frequency Wi-Fi but uses visible light to communicate at high speed among devices in a network. Professor Hass is the founder of the company PureLiFi (http://purelifi.com), which is working to commercialize this technology. The following diagram from PureLiFi explains how Li-Fi technology works.

Li-Fi-How_VLC_works

A special (smart) LED (light-emitting diode) light bulb capable of modulating the output light, and a photoreceptor connected to the end-user’s device are required.

You can see Professor Hass’ presentation on Li-Fi technology on the TED website at the following link:

http://www.ted.com/talks/harald_haas_wireless_data_from_every_light_bulb?language=en#t-233169

Key differences between Li-Fi and Wi-Fi include:

  • Li-Fi is implemented via a smart LED light bulb that includes a microchip for handling the local data communications function. Many LED light bulbs can be integrated into a broader network with many devices.
    • Light bulbs are everywhere, opening the possibility for large Li-Fi networks integrated with modernized lighting systems.
  • Li-Fi offers significantly higher data transfer rates than Wi-Fi.
    • In an industrial environment, Estonian startup firm Velmenni has demonstrated 1 GBps (gigabits per second). Under laboratory conditions, rates up to 224 gigabits/sec have been achieved.
  • Li-Fi requires line-of-sight communications between the smart LED light bulb and the device using Li-Fi network services.
    • While this imposes limitations on the application of Li-Fi technology, it greatly reduces the potential for network interference among devices.
  • Li-Fi may be usable in environments where Wi-Fi is not an acceptable alternative.
    • Some hazardous gas and explosive handling environments
    • Commercial passenger aircraft when current wireless devices must be in “airplane mode” with Wi-Fi OFF.
    • Some classified / high-security facilities
  • Li-Fi cannot be used in some environments where Wi-Fi can be successfully employed.
    • Bright sunlight areas or other areas with bright ambient lighting

You can see a video with a simple Li-Fi demonstration using a Velmenni Jugnu smart LED light bulb and a smartphone at the following link:

http://velmenni.com

Velmenni smart LED

The radio frequency spectrum for Wi-Fi is crowded and will only get worse in the future. A big benefit of Li-Fi technology is that it does not compete for any part of the spectrum used by Wi-Fi.

Is EPA Fudging the Numbers for its Carbon Regulation?

All Posts, Power Generating Technology - Alternate, Power Generating Technology - Fossil, Power Generating Technology - Nuclear, , , , , , ,

Peter Lobner

In my 2 July 2015 post, I commented on significant deficiencies in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Power Plan proposed rule. On 3 August 2015, the EPA announced the final rule. You can read the final rule for existing power plants, the EPA’s regulatory impact analysis, and associated fact sheets at the following link:

http://www2.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/clean-power-plan-existing-power-plants

The Institute for Energy Research (IER) is a not-for-profit organization that conducts research and analysis on the functions, operations, and government regulation of global energy markets. The IER home page is at the following link:

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org

On 24 November 2015, the IER published an insightful article entitled, Is EPA Fudging the Numbers for its Carbon Regulation?, which I believe is worth your attention. The IER’s main points are:

  1. U.S. Energy Information Agency’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is the data source usually used by federal government agencies in their analysis of energy issues.
  2. EPA stands out as an exception. It frequently chooses not to use EIA data, and instead develops it’s own duplicative, different data.
  3. In the case of the Clean Power Plan, the EPA’s own data significantly underestimates the number of coal plants that need to be retired to comply with the Plan. The result is a much lower estimate of the economic impact of the Plan than if EIA data had been used.

It appears to me that the EPA created and used data skewed to produce a more favorable, but likely unrealistic, estimate of the economic impact that will borne by the U.S. power industry and power customers as the Clean Power Plan is implemented. Form your own opinion after reading the full IER article at the following link:

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/is-epa-fudging-the-numbers-for-its-carbon-regulation/

Update 19 Feb 2016

On 8 February 2016, the American Nuclear Society (ANS) released their, “Nuclear in the States Toolkit Version 1.0 – Policy Options for States Considering the Role of Nuclear Power in Their Energy Mix.” The toolkit catalogs policies related to new and existing nuclear reactors for state policymakers to consider as they draft their Clean Power Plan compliance strategies.   The Toolkit identifies a range of policy options that individually or in aggregate can make nuclear generation a more attractive generation alternative for states and utilities.

You can download this document at the following link:

http://nuclearconnect.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ANS-NIS-Toolkit-download.pdf

On 9 February 2016, the U.S. Supreme Court issues a stay on implementation of the EPA’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) pending the resolution of legal challenges to the program in court.

The ANS noted that, “….the stay provides them (the states) an opportunity to take a new look at the carbon offsets that existing nuclear plants provide, which they weren’t encouraged to do under the CPP rules.”

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future

All Posts, Nuclear Arms & Arms Control, , , , ,

Peter Lobner

Proliferation of nuclear technology has been the subject of many studies for more than a half century.   The latest assessment is provided in the subject document, “Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future,” by Henry D. Sokolsky, published in 2015 by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC).

Underestimated book cover  Source: NPEC

The author describes the scope of this document as follows:

“First, it reviews the key popular views on nuclear proliferation. Second, it considers how much worse matters might get if states continue with relatively loose nuclear constraints on civilian and military nuclear activities. Finally, it offers several policy recommendations.”

 In this report, Henry Sokolsky shows how simple life was in 1962:

1962 nuclear relationships Source: NPEC

By 2001, the relationships had become more complex, as shown by the author in the following figure:

2001 nuclear relationships Source: NPEC

The author also shows how relationships are becoming more complex as nuclear weapons technology has proliferated to North Korea (DPRK) and potentially will proliferate to other nations aspiring to become nuclear powers.

You can download this document for free from the NPEC website at the following link:

http://www.npolicy.org/thebook.php?bid=34

With 181 footnotes interspersed with the text, it is not easy reading, but I think you will find that it is worth your time.

Forty years ago, in 1975 (and updated in 1976), a similar assessment was presented in a report entitled, “Moving Toward Life in a Nuclear Armed Crowd?,” by Albert Wohlstetter and a team from Pan Heuristics, a division of Science Applications, Inc. [SAI, later Science Applications Internal Corporation (SAIC)]. This report was prepared for the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) and was intended to define the then current trends in the spread of nuclear technology and analyze the political, economic and military problems that these trends posed for U.S. and international policy makers.

You can download this report from the NPEC website at following link:

http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=505&rid=1

The “Nuclear Armed Crowd” report has extensive data tables and charts that are particularly interesting in hindsight. This report was written before the first nuclear tests by India and Pakistan, but these nations were assessed as proliferation risks in this report. Notably absent in this report is North Korea (DPRK), which used a clandestine nuclear program to develop it’s indigenous (but likely with the help of other nations) nuclear weapons capability.

These two reports are not bedtime reading. You will not sleep better after having read them. However, I think the 40 years between these two reports will provide you with valuable insights to the great difficulties of controlling the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology.

The Bright Spots on Ceres Come into Focus

All Posts, Planetary science, Spacecraft and Missions, , , ,

Peter Lobner

In my 20 March 2015 post, I discussed the Dawn spacecraft mission to the large asteroid Vesta and the dwarf planet Ceres, both of which are in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Dawn arrived in orbit around Ceres on 6 March 2015, at an initial altitude of 8,400 miles (13,518 kilometers). On approach and from this high altitude orbit, Dawn photographed two very bright spots on the surface of Ceres.

Ceres seen from Dawn  Source: NASA

After spending six months mapping the surface of Ceres and gradually descending to lower altitude orbits, Dawn currently is in a much lower “high-altitude mapping orbit” (HAMO) at 915 miles (1,470 kilometers) above the surface. Ceres’ diameter is about 587 miles (946 kilometers). Due to the low mass of this dwarf planet, Dawn’s orbital speed in the HAMO is only 400 mph (645 kph). The spacecraft completes one orbit in about 19 hours.

From its current vantage point in HAMO, Dawn has provided a much better view of the bright spots on Ceres. The following composite photo shows the bright spots at a resolution of 450 feet (140 meters) per pixel.

ceres-bright-spots-Sep2015,jpg  Source: NASA

The source of the bright spots has not yet been determined. We’ll get a more detailed view later in 2015, when the spacecraft descends to the “low altitude mapping orbit” (LAMO) at an altitude of 230 miles (370 kilometers).

You can keep up with the work of the Dawn project team at the following NASA / Jet Propulsion Lab website:

http://dawnblog.jpl.nasa.gov

 9 December 2015 Update:

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) released closeup photos of the bright spots, which appear to be globally distributed on Ceres. JPL scientists reported that Ceres has more than 130 bright areas, and most of them appear to be associated with impact craters.   There is evidence that the bright spots may be salt deposits left behind after a subterranean briny water-ice deposit was exposed by an impact and the  ice-water sublimated into space.  Here is a closeup, false-color photo of the Occator Crater, emphasizing the deposits of bright material on the crater floor.

Occator Crater - Ceres_JPL

You can read more on this subject on the JPL website at the following link:

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4785

1 November 2018 Update:

On 1 November 2018, NASA reported the end of the Dawn mission:

“Dawn missed scheduled communications sessions with NASA’s Deep Space Network on Wednesday, Oct. 31, and Thursday, Nov. 1. After the flight team eliminated other possible causes for the missed communications, mission managers concluded that the spacecraft finally ran out of hydrazine, the fuel that enables the spacecraft to control its pointing. Dawn can no longer keep its antennae trained on Earth to communicate with mission control or turn its solar panels to the Sun to recharge.”

You’ll find more information about the Dawn mission and its many accomplishments on the NASA / JPL website at the following link:

https://dawn.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news-detail.html?id=7275